Six Nations Title Permutations Explained: How Can Each Team Still Win The Championship?

We’re taking a detailed look at this year’s Six Nations title permutations as Ireland, France and England are all still in the hunt for the 2025 championship.

As the Six Nations enters the final two rounds, three teams remain capable of winning the tournament.

Reigning champions Ireland are the clear favourites. They are the only unbeaten side with three wins from three after their 27-18 victory over a much-improved Wales in Cardiff.

France reasserted their title credentials with a record-breaking 73-24 hammering of Italy in Rome, keeping them within touching distance of the Irish.

And England’s nail-biting 16-15 victory against Scotland meant that, in theory, they could still win the tournament, though they’d need some favourable results.

With the bottom two sides still to play in Italy and Wales, Steve Borthwick’s side have a good opportunity to mount a late challenge if other teams can do them a favour.

Below, we will take a thorough look at this year’s Six Nations title permutations and what each side needs to lift the trophy.

But first, here’s a look at the current standings and the remaining fixtures:

Here’s your #GuinnessM6N results table following the third round of matches! There’s still everything to play for! 🏆 pic.twitter.com/swwK6R2Hke

— Guinness Men's Six Nations (@SixNationsRugby) February 23, 2025

Remaining Fixtures For 2025 Six Nations

Round four

Sat, 8 March:

• Ireland Vs France – Aviva Stadium, Dublin (2.15pm, ITV)
• Scotland Vs Wales – Murrayfield, Edinburgh (4.45pm, BBC)

Sun, 9 March:

• England Vs Italy – Allianz Stadium, Twickenham (3pm, ITV)

Round five

Sat, 15 March:

• Italy Vs Ireland – Stadio Olimpico, Rome (2.15pm, ITV)
• Wales Vs England – Principality Stadium, Cardiff (4.45pm, BBC)
• France Vs Scotland – Stade de France, Paris (8pm, ITV)

Six Nations Title Permutations:

Ireland

Despite playing this year’s tournament without head coach Andy Farrell – who is away preparing to lead the Lions in the summer – Ireland remain tournament favourites.

They have already won the Triple Crown after wins against England, Scotland and Wales.

Ireland’s road to a record third straight Six Nations title is simple. All the boys in green need to do is win their remaining games and they’ll secure both the title and the Grand Slam.

They would also be guaranteed the trophy were they to draw with France and beat Italy, as long as they picked up at least one bonus point in the process, or had a better points difference than England if they finished level.

Should Ireland lose to France, things get more difficult. With Les Bleus racking up a monster points difference after hammering Italy (+91), Ireland (+28 PD) would need a huge swing on the final day to finish above France if they were level on points after Super Saturday.

This means Ireland will more than likely need to finish at least one point better off than France, which will require bonus points should they lose next weekend.

Failing that, defeat to France would leave them needing Scotland to help their Celtic cousins by avoiding defeat to France in round five.

France

After a lacklustre defeat to England, France bounced back and kept themselves in the race with a huge win over Italy.

That, plus the 43-0 thumping of Wales in the opening match, has given them a huge +91 points difference.

France are therefore extremely likely to finish above any other side if they are level on points.

This means that if they beat Ireland in Dublin and allow the hosts no more than one bonus point, they are guaranteed to finish above them with a bonus-point win against Scotland on the final day.

That’s Ireland taken care of, but with France just a point above England, they will need to finish at least level on points with the Red Rose and hope to beat them on points difference.

Should England take maximum points from their final games against Italy and Wales, France would need to win both their games with at least one bonus point to take the title on points difference.

England

The English are the only side able to win the tournament who must rely on other results going their way.

In order to have any realistic chance, they must beat both Italy and Wales with bonus points – which moves them to 20 points in the table.

France would then need to beat Ireland and allow them no bonus points. This would mean two five-point wins for England would guarantee they finish above Ireland.

Should Ireland take anything from defeat against France, it would likely come down to points difference.

Ireland currently lead England in that department, with +28 to -3, meaning a big swing would be needed.

Although France must beat Ireland to give England any chance, the ideal situation is for neither side to score four tries.

France’s huge points difference of +91 means Fabien Galthie’s men are almost certain to beat England if they finish level.

This means that if France do take a bonus-point while beating Ireland, England would need Scotland to win or draw with France on Super Saturday.