Sports Betting
NFL Betting Trends: A $100 Bettor Would Be Up Nearly $1,500 Blindly Betting NFL Unders This Season
Writing professionally since 2015, Jack Dougherty spent six years as a sportswriter with publications such as GoPSUSports.com, the Centre Daily Times, and the Associated Press before joining Sportscasting in 2020. He covers the NBA, the NFL, and the world of golf extensively and has added expertise on any team located in or around his hometown of Philadelphia. Yes, that includes the Philadelphia Eagles, the Philadelphia 76ers, and Philadelphia Phillies. When Jack isn't writing about sports, he's watching them or playing them as he regularly heads to the gym for some pickup basketball or the golf course to hit the links. He's also an avid participant in the sports betting scene who worked at a casino sportsbook for a year and learned the ins and outs of the industry before bringing his expertise to Sportscasting with one excellent gambling recommendation after another.
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Not many casual sports bettors love loading up on unders, especially in the NFL. It’s much more enjoyable to fire on a bunch of overs and root for touchdowns on NFL RedZone all day. But if that’s been your primary strategy to start the 2022-23 season, you aren’t having much fun at all.
Through six weeks of the NFL season, unders are hitting at a 60.6% pace (57-37). So, if you blindly bet $100 on all 94 games to go under the total, you’d be up nearly $1,500 in profit. Yeah, seriously.
NFL unders are 57-37 through six weeks
Scoring in the NFL has been up across the board over the last few years, so game totals have understandably increased on average. But we aren’t seeing as many points to start this season, and sportsbooks have been slow to adjust.
Through six weeks, NFL teams are averaging 21.6 points per game. The scoring average is down from 23.0 in 2021 and 24.8 in 2020.
Because of the lower scores around the league, unders have a 57-37 record through 94 games, per a tweet from John Ewing of BetMGM. It’s the best start we’ve seen from unders since 1994, per a tweet from Darren Rovell of Action Network.
Only five teams — the Cleveland Browns, Detroit Lions, Las Vegas Raiders, New Orleans Saints, and Jacksonville Jaguars — have winning over records this season. On the other side, 19 teams have winning under records to this point.
Check out the breakdown of every team’s over/under record and their O/U margin below (stats courtesy of TeamRankings.com)
| Team | Over/Under Record | Over/Under Margin |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns | 5-1-0 | +8.9 |
| Detroit Lions | 4-1-0 | +13.2 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 3-1-1 | +1.6 |
| New Orleans Saints | 4-2-0 | +7.0 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 4-2-0 | -1.4 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 3-3-0 | +0.8 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 3-3-0 | +6.4 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 3-3-0 | +3.0 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 3-3-0 | -2.5 |
| New England Patriots | 3-3-0 | -1.4 |
| New York Jets | 3-3-0 | +1.8 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 3-3-0 | -3.5 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 3-3-0 | +1.5 |
| Tennessee Titans | 2-3-0 | -1.8 |
| Houston Texans | 2-3-0 | -7.0 |
| Miami Dolphins | 2-4-0 | +0.2 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 2-4-0 | -7.8 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 2-4-0 | -2.0 |
| New York Giants | 2-4-0 | -2.1 |
| Washington Commanders | 2-4-0 | -4.0 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 2-4-0 | +3.8 |
| Chicago Bears | 2-4-0 | -5.0 |
| Green Bay Packers | 2-4-0 | -4.6 |
| Carolina Panthers | 2-4-0 | -0.3 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 1-4-1 | -7.0 |
| Buffalo Bills | 1-5-0 | -7.6 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 1-5-0 | -6.4 |
| Denver Broncos | 1-5-0 | -12.8 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 1-5-0 | -6.8 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 1-5-0 | -7.1 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1-5-0 | -8.4 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 1-5-0 | -3.2 |
A $100 bettor would be up nearly $1,500 blindly betting NFL unders this season
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Sports betting is nearly impossible to master, but we make it harder than it needs to be sometimes. If you solely bet the under on all 94 NFL games to start the 2022-23 season, you’d be up $1,490.96 through six weeks, per a tweet from Covers.
Is it time to start blindly tailing the under trend, or are overs due to start cashing to stabilize the market? Hopefully, you were just on the under trend from Week 1 and don’t have to worry about that.
Have thoughts on this topic? Keep the conversation rolling in our comments section below.
