Sports Betting

NFL Week 6 Picks: Best Bets, Underdog Moneyline, and Teaser of the Week

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Patrick Mahomes yells during a game against the Raiders.

It was a brutal Week 4 for me here on my NFL best bets. There’s no denying that. But after the 0-6 beatdown, I was able to bounce back in a major way with a 5-1 record in Week 5. That brings my season record to 20-10 through five weeks, and you’d be up more than 10 units if you tailed every pick.

So, let’s try and keep the momentum rolling for what should be the most entertaining slate of the NFL season yet. Week 6 best bets, let’s go!

NFL Week 6 best bets

Patrick Mahomes yells during a game against the Raiders.
Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs yells while running down the sideline against the Las Vegas Raiders | Cooper Neill/Getty Images

2022 Best Bets Record: 16-9 (+8.19 units)

All betting odds courtesy of FanDuel as of 10/14.

Favorite Favorite: Green Bay Packers -7.5 vs. New York Jets

This just feels right, doesn’t it?

The Packers are coming off a disappointing loss to the New York Giants in London, which is actually great news for this bet. As the head coach of the Packers, Matt LaFleur is 10-0 straight up and against the spread in games following a loss. Earlier this season, Green Bay demolished the Chicago Bears one week after losing by 16 to the Minnesota Vikings.

The Jets have been punching above their weight class to start the season, and I think Zach Wilson is in for a rough Sunday up against the best defense he’s faced this year.

Favorite Underdog: Carolina Panthers +10 at Los Angeles Rams

I know, I know. This one’s gross. Just hear me out.

Are we sure Steve Wilks isn’t an upgrade over Matt Rhule? And on that note, are we sure P.J. Walker isn’t an upgrade over Baker Mayfield?

Rhule was the worst head coach against the spread dating back to last season, and Mayfield is the worst quarterback in the league this year in terms of QBR. This is going to be the best version of the Panthers we’ve seen all season, and the Rams haven’t proven enough to warrant a 10-point spread against anyone. Hold your nose and take the points.

Favorite Over: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers over 45.5

If there’s a game Tom Brady and the Buccaneers are going to light up the scoreboard, it’s this one. The Steelers gave up 432 passing yards and 38 points to the Bills last week, and Josh Allen could’ve thrown for 500 yards if he kept slinging it all game.

Safety Minkah Fitzpatrick and cornerbacks Cameron Sutton, Levi Wallace, and Ahkello Witherspoon have all been ruled out for Pittsburgh this Sunday. The Bucs should be able to put 30 points on the board without much issue, and I think Kenny Pickett will have some success moving the ball with Logan Ryan, Sean Murphy-Bunting, and Akiem Hick ruled out for Tampa Bay.

Favorite Under: Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys under 42.5

The Cowboys are 4-0 with Cooper Rush under center, but that’s had very little to do with the offense. Dallas is allowing the third-fewest points per game (14.4) this season, and none of their five games have gone over this total of 42.5.

As for the Eagles, they’ve gone over this number just twice, and that was against the Detroit Lions and the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Cowboys defense will be the best the Eagles have faced this season, and I think Micah Parsons and Co. will be able to pressure Jalen Hurts in a way he hasn’t been all year.

Favorite Underdog Moneyline: Kansas City Chiefs +120

The utter disrespect.

This one is simple for me. Patrick Mahomes has been an underdog eight times in the NFL. He’s 7-0-1 against the spread in those games, winning six of them outright. I don’t care how good the Bills looked last week. They don’t deserve to be a favorite in Arrowhead.

Teaser of the Week

RELATED: Dallas Cowboys Foolishly Give Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles Bulletin Board Material Ahead of Crucial NFC East Showdown

2022 Teaser of the Week Record: 4-1 (+2.8 units)

New England Patriots +8.5/Kansas City Chiefs +8.5

Bill Belichick isn’t going to let Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt beat him on the ground. The defensive-minded head coach will force Jacoby Brissett to beat him with his arm, and I’m not convinced he can do it. The Browns have won by nine or more points just once this season, and that was against an abysmal Steelers team. New England has a chance to win this game outright.

As for the Chiefs, I already explained why I like them to pull off the “upset.” Even if they don’t, I expect this one to come down to the last possession like last year’s playoff showdown.

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