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Most of the divisions around the NFL are up for grabs this year based on the raw betting odds, but the NFC South is a different story. Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are currently -290 favorites to win the NFC South, making them the biggest division favorites in the NFL for this coming season.

So, naturally, I can’t wait to bet against them.

Check out my underdog pick to take down the Bucs in 2023 and a win total over I’m eyeing in the complete betting breakdown of the NFC South.

NFC South betting odds

Tom Brady motions against the Panthers.
Tom Brady of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers gestures during a game against the Carolina Panthers | Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

At -290 to win the NFC South, the Buccaneers are the most likely division winner in the NFL heading into the 2022-23 season. Only the Buffalo Bills (-220 to win AFC East) come close.

Behind the Bucs are the New Orleans Saints at +400 to win the division. Baker Mayfield and the Carolina Panthers are a bit higher on the odds board at +950, and the lowly Atlanta Falcons are all the way up to 25/1.

In terms of the wider futures market, only the Bucs are getting respect from oddsmakers with +320 odds to win the NFC and +750 odds to win the Super Bowl. Tampa Bay is the betting favorite to win the conference and the second-biggest favorite to win the Super Bowl behind the Bills.

Check out the full betting breakdown of the NFC South below:

NFC South win totals
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 11.5
New Orleans Saints: 8.5
Carolina Panthers: 6.5
Atlanta Falcons: 4.5

Odds to win NFC South
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: -290
New Orleans Saints: +400
Carolina Panthers: +950
Atlanta Falcons: +2500

Odds to win NFC
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: +320
New Orleans Saints: +1700
Carolina Panthers: +5000
Atlanta Falcons: +10000

Odds to win Super Bowl
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: +750
New Orleans Saints: +4000
Carolina Panthers: +10000
Atlanta Falcons: +25000

NFC South best bets: Fading Tom Brady with a +400 division future

Saints to win NFC South (+400)

Las Vegas seems to think the Buccaneers won’t be challenged for the NFC South crown this year, but I’m not convinced. Not only did Brady lose a crucial protector in Ali Marpet to retirement, but there are also question marks with Chris Godwin returning from his torn ACL and Leonard Fournette reportedly showing up to camp out of shape.

As for the Saints, I love the offseason they put together. New Orleans added Jarvis Landry and Chris Olave to what should be a high-powered offense behind Jameis Winston, and it landed one of the top free agents of the summer in Tyrann Mathieu. Oh, and remember Michael Thomas? He should be back on the field this season, too.

Stepping in for Sean Payton will be former defensive coordinator Dennis Allen, who seems to be the only man in the NFL who’s solved the intricate puzzle that is Tom Brady. In the last two years, Brady is 0-4 against the Saints in the regular season with seven interceptions and just six touchdown passes. Tampa Bay has been outscored by New Orleans 117-53 over that span.

Allen’s defense has Brady’s number, and with an improved roster on both sides of the ball, I’ll take a shot on the Saints to win the NFC South at +400.

Panthers OVER 6.5 wins (+105)

Everyone seems to have written off Baker Mayfield as a quality starter in the NFL, but not me. The former Cleveland Browns quarterback is a huge upgrade from Sam Darnold, and with Christian McCaffrey (hopefully) returning to full strength, I think the Panthers are one of the more underrated teams in the NFL heading into the new season.

Carolina gets the New York Giants, the Detroit Lions, the Seattle Seahawks, the Browns likely without Deshaun Watson, and the Falcons twice in 2022-23. That should be five or six wins right there. Pick off a few contenders throughout the year, and the Panthers should be close to a .500 team.

All betting odds courtesy of FanDuel as of 7/26.

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AFC South Betting Preview: A +160 Division Bet and a Surprising Win Total to Target