It was an uninspiring Week 9 for me and my best bets.
I went 2-4 with maybe my worst call of the year on the Buffalo Bills, and my Teaser of the Week winning streak came to an end after a 7-1 start to the season. Still, we’re operating in the green with a 31-23 overall record for +8.77 units, so it’s not all bad around here.
I’ve been good at bouncing back after losing weeks this season, so let’s do it again this Sunday to steal some momentum back. Week 10 best bets, let’s go!
NFL Week 10 Best Bets
2022 Best Bets Record: 24-21 (+4.17 units)
All betting odds courtesy of FanDuel as of 11/11.
Favorite Favorite: Chicago Bears -3 vs. Detroit Lions
I cashed a ticket on the fighting Dan Campbells last week, but that was the only scenario in which I’m willing to back this Lions team. Campbell is an ATM as a home underdog, but when he goes on the road and outside the confines of his comfortable dome, this team falls apart.
Jared Goff has thrown 29 touchdowns and 10 interceptions in home games since the start of last season. But on the road, he’s thrown 11 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Detroit is 0-3 straight up and 1-2 ATS in road games this year, failing to cover by an average of 11.5 points per game.
As for the Bears, they’ve finally figured out how to maximize Justin Fields‘ skillset. Chicago is averaging 31.3 points per game over their last three games, and I see another 30-point performance coming against a Lions defense that ranks as the worst unit in the NFL.
Favorite Underdog: Cleveland Browns +3.5 at Miami Dolphins
The Browns are a better team than most people give them credit for. Through nine weeks, Cleveland ranks 11th in overall DVOA — one spot ahead of the Dolphins — and fifth in offensive DVOA. If you take out their dud against the New England Patriots, the Browns have lost their other four games by nine total points.
Although Miami’s offense has been spectacular with a healthy Tua Tagovailoa under center, the Dolphins’ six wins have come by an average of only 5.3 points per game. The Browns have the perfect formula to slow down the Dolphins by pounding Nick Chubb and limiting Miami’s possessions. I think this one comes down to the wire, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Cleveland pulls off the upset.
Favorite Over: New York Giants vs. Houston Texans over 41.5
Who’s ready for some old school football, baby?
We’re going to see a heavy dose of the ground game in this one, and for a good reason. The Giants and Texans rank 30th and 31st, respectively, in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per attempt. It just so happens they’ll be going up against two explosive running backs in Saquon Barkley and Dameon Pierce in Week 10.
Both teams are going to have tons of success running it up the gut, and I think this total is just a bit too low.
Favorite Under: Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys under 43
How many points can we expect the Packers to score this week?
Green Bay managed just one touchdown and nine points last Sunday against a Lions defense that’s allowed the most points per game in the league by a sizeable margin. We already know Romeo Doubs is out for Week 10, and Aaron Jones, Allen Lazard, Sammy Watkins, and David Bakhtiari are all questionable to suit up.
This Cowboys defense is going to be all over Aaron Rodgers for 60 minutes, and he won’t have anyone healthy to target. I’d be shocked if the Packers score more than 14 points on Sunday, and if Green Bay’s defense has any pride, it’ll be able to hold Dallas under 30.
Favorite Underdog Moneyline: Pittsburgh Steelers +108 vs. New Orleans Saints
I know, I know. Pittsburgh is the shortest underdog of the week, but a plus sign is still a plus sign in the end.
T.J. Watt is finally back on the field for the Steelers, and he’s by far the most important player on this team. Mike Tomlin is also 11-4 off a bye in his career with the Steelers. Pittsburgh has the better coach, the better quarterback, the rest advantage, and the home-field advantage over the Saints. The Steelers should be favored this week, so I’ll take the value at +108.
Teaser of the Week
2022 Teaser of the Week Record: 7-2 (+4.6 units)
Seattle Seahawks +8.5/Cleveland Browns +9.5
This one is simple for me. The Seahawks are quite simply better than the Buccaneers, and this line is probably a pick’em if Sean McVay’s defense didn’t sit back and watch Tom Brady waltz down the field with no timeouts and steal that game.
Tampa Bay hasn’t won by more than eight points since Week 2. They don’t have the offensive firepower to win this one in blowout fashion.
As for the Browns, I already explained why I like them to cover the 3.5, so it would make sense I would like them even more at 9.5. The Dolphins have won by double digits just once all season, and I don’t see it happening in Week 10.
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