NFL Week 11 Picks: Best Bets, Underdog Moneyline, and Teaser of the Week
Welp, it wasn’t my finest hour in best bets last week. I went 1-5 with my Week 10 picks for my second losing slate in a row, and I lost the Teaser of the Week for the third time this season.
That’s the bad news. Here’s the good news.
I’m still over .500 at 32-28 on the season and up 4.25 units in all. A $100 bettor would still be up $425 if they took every bet dating back to Week 1. Oh, and I plan on crushing this week’s slate to get this profit train back on track.
NFL Week 11 best bets, let’s go!
NFL Week 11 best bets
2022 Best Bets Record: 25-25 (+0.85 units)
All betting odds courtesy of FanDuel as of 11/19.
Favorite Favorite: New Orleans Saints -2.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams
How in the world are the Rams going to score in this game?
Cooper Kupp was the only reason why LA was able to move the ball this season. He accounted for 34% of the team’s scrimmage yards and scored six of the offense’s 16 touchdowns. Now that he’s out for the next few weeks with an ankle injury, the Rams have almost no hope of climbing back into the playoff race.
I’m not a fan of this Saints team with Andy Dalton under center, but this is simply a play against what has been the worst offense in the NFL this season now missing its most important weapon.
Favorite Underdog: Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
The Steelers were the only reason why I didn’t go 0-6 last week, so let’s go back to the well this Sunday.
With T.J. Watt back in the lineup, Pittsburgh held New Orleans to just 186 yards of offense and 10 points in Week 10. Minkah Fitzpatrick is also on pace to return this week, so I think this defense can have another successful day against a Cincinnati offense that can’t protect Joe Burrow and will be without Ja’Marr Chase.
For some icing on the cake, Mike Tomlin is 14-4-2 against the spread as a home underdog as the head coach of the Steelers. He’s also won 13 of those 20 games outright. I expect this to be a three-point game either way, and Pittsburgh is live to win this game.
Favorite Over: Indianapolis Colts vs. Philadelphia Eagles over 45.5
The Eagles played by far their worst game of the season last week, but the offense still put up 21 points despite coughing up four turnovers. Philly is still the only team in the NFL that has scored at least 20 points in every game this year, and Jalen Hurts and Co. should have no problem soaring over that total again in Week 11.
As for the Colts, they should have plenty of success running the ball with Jonathan Taylor all day long. The Eagles have given up 124, 134, 144, 168, and 152 rushing yards to their opponents over their last five games, and Taylor will be the best RB this defense has faced all season.
Favorite Under: New Orleans Saints vs. Los Angeles Rams under 39.5
My first double-up of the season! I try to stay away from these because you need a specific game script to play out to win both bets, but I think this is a perfect spot for a double winner.
Without Kupp carrying this offense, the Rams are going to struggle to score 14 points. Sean McVay knows that, so he’s going to draw up a defensive game plan that gives LA a chance to win a low-scoring slugfest.
Favorite Underdog Moneyline: Los Angeles Chargers +190 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
This might be my favorite underdog moneyline bet of the season.
The Chargers hung tough against the San Francisco 49ers last week despite missing Keenan Allen and Mike Williams and losing Gerald Everett in the middle of the game. It looks like all three have a good chance to suit up this Sunday, though, as they all logged full practices on Friday.
As for the Chiefs, they’ve already ruled out Mecole Hardman and JuJu Smith-Schuster for Sunday Night Football. I don’t trust Kadarius Toney to pick up the slack in just his third start alongside Patrick Mahomes. Plus, Travis Kelce had his worst game of the season against LA because Derwin James is such a formidable matchup for him in coverage.
In a game that should be a race to 28 points, I trust the more desperate Chargers to get there before the banged-up Chiefs.
Teaser of the Week
2022 Teaser of the Week Record: 7-3 (+3.4 units)
Buffalo Bills -1.5/Minnesota Vikings +7.5
I think the Bills would’ve been in trouble if the NFL forced them to play this game in snowy Buffalo, but now that it’s been moved to a dome in Detroit, I don’t see them dropping their second straight game. Josh Allen and Co. should have a field day against this struggling Browns defense.
As for the Vikings, I wouldn’t be surprised if they lose on Sunday, but this is still a disrespectful line for an 8-1 team on their home field. I see this coming down to the wire and finishing as a one-possession game, so I love pushing Minnesota up through three and seven in a teaser.
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