Whew, that’s more like it.
After two straight losing slates in the NFL, I bounced back in Week 12 with a 4-2 record in best bets and a win with the Carolina Panthers as +108 underdogs. That puts me back over .500 for the season at 37-35 for +1.61 units.
It feels good to get back on track, but there’s no time to celebrate. We’ve got a banger of an NFL slate in Week 13, and we can make it even better by padding our wallets with some winning bets.
NFL Week 13, let’s go!
NFL Week 13 best bets
2022 Best Bets Record: 29-31 (-1.59 units)
All betting odds courtesy of FanDuel as of 12/2.
Favorite Favorite: Las Vegas Raiders -1 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Wait, the 4-7 Raiders — the same Raiders that lost to the Chargers by five points in Week 1 — are now one-point favorites over their division rivals in Week 13? What’s up with that?
I’ll tell you what’s up with that. The Raiders are starting to turn their season around after some brutally unlucky, close losses to start the season. Las Vegas has won two games in a row thanks in large part to Josh Jacobs, and he should be in for another huge day on Sunday.
The Chargers haven’t been able to stop the run all season, and they’ve given up at least 150 rushing yards in five straight games. Las Vegas is much better than its record indicates, and I think Jacobs powers them to a home win on Sunday.
Favorite Underdog: Miami Dolphins +3.5 at San Francisco 49ers
Boy, the bookmakers sure do love this 49ers team.
The Dolphins have a better overall record, a more explosive offense, and, yes, a better quarterback in this matchup. Miami hasn’t lost this season when Tua Tagovailoa starts and finishes the same game. Based on these teams’ results so far this season, the spread between them shouldn’t be more than a field goal.
I feel like we’re getting an extra half-point in what should be a close game to the end, and it just happens to be the most important half-point in NFL betting. Give me the dog.
Favorite Over: Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers over 44.5
This total makes no sense to me.
The Packers have had no issues scoring against the Bears of late. Green Bay is averaging 32.2 points per game against Chicago over their last six games against the division rivals. A few of those games have gone under the total solely because the Bears couldn’t keep up, but that should be a different story this time around.
Justin Fields has looked like a budding star in his last five starts. The Bears are only 1-4 in those games, but they’ve put up 29.6 points per game during that stretch. Green Bay couldn’t stop Jalen Hurts and the rush-heavy Eagles last week, and I’m expecting a similar result this Sunday.
Favorite Under: New York Giants vs. Washington Commanders under 40
Over the last five weeks, the Giants and Commanders have gone under this total a combined six times in 10 games. Washington’s defense has been especially impressive during that stretch, as the unit has held opponents to just 15.4 points per game since Oct. 30.
Now, the Commanders get to face a Giants offense that’s looked inept over the past few games. Teams have figured out that New York can’t move the ball without a heavy dose of Saquon Barkley, and Washington is holding its opponents to only 108.4 rushing yards per game. That ranks eighth in the NFL.
In what should be a hard-fought game between two division rivals fighting for playoff positioning, I think the first team to 17 points comes out on top.
Favorite Underdog Moneyline: Tennessee Titans +180 at Philadelphia Eagles
I’ve played the Titans in underdog spots a few times this season, and it’s worked out well so far. In fact, betting Tennesee as a dog has been a lucrative strategy ever since Mike Vrabel took over as head coach in 2018.
In 39 games as a dog, Vrabel and the Titans are 24-15 against the spread. They’ve won a ridiculous 22 of those games outright, making Vrabel the most profitable head coach as an underdog over the last four years.
In terms of the on-field handicap, the Eagles will have loads of trouble slowing down Derrick Henry after they struggled to contain A.J. Dillion in Week 12. The Titans should be able to muck this game up, slow down Philadelphia’s rushing attack, and ride King Henry to an upset victory.
Teaser of the Week
2022 Teaser of the Week Record: 8-4 (+3.2 units)
New York Giants +7.5/Baltimore Ravens -2.5
Getting the Giants up to +7.5 might be my favorite teaser leg of the year. They’re at home, it’s a game that’s expected to be low-scoring with a total of just 40, and New York is due for a bounce-back performance after two straight losses. This has the feel of a three-point win either way.
As for the other leg, the Broncos are a dead team walking right now. Russell Wilson continues to look like a bottom-tier quarterback, and his two best wide receivers, Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy, are questionable to play this week. The Ravens should have no problem winning this one by at least a field goal.
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