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Coming into the 2022 NFL season, the Green Bay Packers playoff chances were better than most. That’s what having two-time reigning NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers will do for you.

But while we knew Green Bay wouldn’t be quite as strong as in recent years, given the loss of Davante Adams, nobody could have expected the Packers to be 3-6 through nine games or 4-8 through their first dozen.

And following the Week 12 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles that dropped Green Bay to 4-8, it seemed inconceivable that the Packers playoff chances could be any higher than zero coming into their Week 18 matchup with the Detroit Lions.

But here we are. Since that loss to the Eagles, Rodgers & Co. have reeled off four straight wins and can get back to the NFL Playoffs for a fourth consecutive season if they can extend that winning streak to five.

Packers playoff chances: How the Packers can clinch a playoff spot in Week 18

Green Bay Packers helmet
Green Bay Packers helmet | Steven King/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Coming into Week 18, FiveThirtyEight puts the Packers playoff chances at 61%, which is 36 points higher than before they thumped the Minnesota Vikings in Week 17.

And the formula for Green Bay to raise that number to 100% is quite simple: Win and you’re in.

The only three teams with a shot at the lone remaining slot in the NFC are the Packers, the Lions, and the Seattle Seahawks, all of whom own the same 8-8 record. And the only scenario in which Green Bay can claim the spot is a win over Detroit.

If that happens, it doesn’t matter what happens with the Seahawks, as the Packers would own the tiebreaker due to having a better record within the conference.

In the event of a tie or a loss against the Lions, Green Bay is automatically eliminated.


NFL Playoff Picture 2022: Who’s In and Who’s Out Heading Into Week 18?