Il Est Francais is a big fancy for one of the day three Cheltenham feature races – however, if he is to win this year’s Festival, he’ll need to overcome a MASSIVE 100% Ryanair Chase trend that stretches back since the race was upgraded to Grade One status in 2008.
Plus, see Andy Newton’s best Cheltenham bets and hot STATS for day 3 here.
ALL Of The Last 17 Ryanair Chases Winners Had Run At The Cheltenham Festival The Previous Season
The popular ‘horses for courses’ saying in the world of horse racing gets reeled off a lot at the Cheltenham Festival – but when it comes to the Ryanair Chase, this steps up several notches.
This is because since 2008, when the Ryanair Chase was upgraded to Grade One status – EVERY WINNER OF THE RACE HAD RUN AT THE FESTIVAL THE PREVIOUS YEAR.
Something the Noel George and Amanda Zetterholm-trained IL EST FRANCAIS can’t claim.
In fact, the 7 year-old, who we last saw running an excellent second in the King George VI Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day, has also NEVER even run at Cheltenham full stop – let alone just the Festival.
His only two races outside France have come at Kempton, when he also landed the 2023 Kauto Star Novices’ Chase.
All this means Il Est Francais, who is the general second favourite with the best horse racing betting sites in the UK behind Fact To File, will have a monster 100% Ryanair Chase trend to overcome if he’s to win the big Thursday Cheltenham race.
82% Of The Last 17 Winners Had Won Or Placed At The Festival Before
In addition – of the last 17 Ryanair Chase winners to have raced at the Festival the previous season – 14 of these also won or were placed.
See below the possible 2025 Ryanair Chase runners and how they fared at the 2024 Festival. With Djelo, Envoi Allen, Fact To File, Gaelic Warrior and last year’s winner of the race – Protektorat – the five horses that tick this stat.
- Djelo – 3rd Turners Novices’ Chase
- Energumene – Didn’t run at the 2024 Festival
- Envoi Allen – 2nd Ryanair Chase
- Fact To File – 1st Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase
- Gaelic Warrior – 1st Arkle Novices’ Chase
- Hang In There – Didn’t run at the 2024 Festival
- Heart Wood – Didn’t run at the 2024 Festival
- Hitman – 8th Ryanair Chase
- Il Est Francais – Didn’t run at the 2024 Festival
- Jungle Boogie – 6th Cheltenham Gold Cup
- Master Chewy – Fell Arkle Novices’ Chase
- Protektorat – 1st Ryanair Chase
Ryanair Chase 2025 Race Details
đź“…Date: Thursday 13th March 2025
⌚Time: 3:20pm
🏇Racecourse: Cheltenham
🔄Trip: 2m 4 1/2f
đź’·Winning Purse: ÂŁ211,013
đź“ş TV: ITV / Racing TV
Ryanair Chase Trends and StatsÂ
- Since the race was upgraded (2008) all 17 winners ran at previous season’s Festival
- 16 of the 20 won at Cheltenham before
- 7 of the last 12 were 2nd season chasers
- All 17 winners (since getting G1 status) had won over 2m4f
- 13 of the last 17 had won a Grade 1 Chase
- 14 of the last 17 had won or placed at the Festival
- The King George VI Chase is a good guide (8 from 31)
- The previous year’s renewal is a good guide
- 16 of the last 20 priced 13/2 or shorter
- 9 of the last 13 aged 7 or 8 years-old
- 16 of the last 17 rated 161+
- Horse rated 170+ won 4 of the last 7
- 4 of the last 20 placed in the top 3 in the Ascot Chase last time out
- 14 of last 20 fav or 2nd fav
- 11 of the last 17 finished 1st or 2nd in last race
- 16 of the last 20 from the top 3 in the betting
- 9 of the last 13 had 11 (or less) runs over fences
- Trainers Jonjo O’Neill, Paul Nicholls, Henry de Bromhead, David Pipe & Nicky Henderson are respected
- Respect first time headgear (3 from 13)
- 11 of the last 17 winners DIDN’T win last time out
- Last 11 winners were French-bred
- All winners ran 5 or less times that season
- 5 of the last 9 winners trained by Willie Mullins
- Last 13 winners aged 9 or younger
- Irish have won 7 of the last 9 runnings
- Avoid horses priced 7/1 or bigger
- No winner aged 11 or older
- Just 1 of the last 15 winners aged 10
- Only one winner rated 160 or below
- Only 6 of the last 17 won last time out
- No winner was having their Festival debut
Willie Mullins Has Won The Ryanair Chase FIVE Times
Since the Ryanair Chase was first run in 2005, no trainer has won the prize more times than Willie Mullins.
The Closutton handler took a bit of time to grab his first win in the race, which came in 2016 with Vautour – but since then has won four more.
Taking his overall tally to five Ryanair Chase wins – Nicky Henderson, Jonjo O’Neill, Henry de Bromhead and David Pipe all have two each. While Paul Nicholls has fired in three winners.
Willie Mullins Ryanair Chase Winners
- Vautour (2016)
- Un de Sceaux (2017)
- Min (2020)
- Allaho (2021, 2022)
Recent Ryanair Chase Winners (Last 10 Years)
2024 – Protektorat (17/2)
2023 – Envoi Allen (13/2)
2022 – Allaho (4/7 fav)
2021 – Allaho (3/1 fav)
2020 – Min (2/1)
2019 – Frodon (9/2)
2018 – Balko Des Flos (8/1)
2017 – Un De Sceaux (7/4 fav)
2016 – Vautour (Evs fav)
2015 – Uxizandre (16/1)
WATCH: Protektorat Winning The 2024 Ryanair Chase
Protektorat will be bidding to become the first ‘back-to-back’ Ryanair Chase winner since Albertas Run, who won in 2010 and 2011.
