We analysed each Premier League team’s results immediately after the international break in recent seasons to see how well they tend to perform after a couple of weeks off – and it’s bad news for Arsenal and Chelsea fans.
Like them or loathe them, international breaks are a fixture of modern football.
How a team reacts to the gap in fixtures can be crucial, and hitting the ground running after the international break is of vital importance.
So we at SportsCasting decided to analyse how all 20 of the current Premier League sides usually perform in their first match after the break.
The Premier League betting odds still have Liverpool as favourites for the title, and the data suggests they might get a boost this weekend.
According to the stats, Arsenal and Chelsea are especially likely to drop points when the Premier League returns from a break.
Key Highlights:
- Arsenal’s win rate after the international break is only 59%.
- Chelsea have just one win in their last nine after the international break.
- Manchester City have lost just once in their last 17 after the international break.
- Liverpool have a 71% win rate after the international break.
- Aston Villa are winless in seven games after the break.
- Brentford have the worst record after the break, with two wins from 17 (12%).
Every Premier League Team’s Record After The International Break
To compare how each team fares after the break, we looked at historic results over the past five years and recorded whether each team won, lost or drew their first match after each mid-season international break from 2021-2025.
Some teams have spent one or more seasons in lower divisions during that time, which may have skewed their results due to playing weaker opposition.
These sides have been denoted with an asterisk(*).
Arsenal Win Barely Half Their Games After The International Break
On paper, having the joint-third best winning percentage after the international break sounds good.
But for Arsenal, who have come agonisingly close to the title repeatedly in recent seasons it simply isn’t good enough.
Mikel Arteta’s men have won just 10 from their last 17 games after the break, for a win rate of 59%.
For a team fighting at the top of the table, every point is crucial.
So could this be a chink in the Arsenal armour that explains why they have fallen short repeatedly?
Arsenal head to Fulham this weekend, a ground where they haven’t won in their previous two attempts.
Despite their FPL price rises, Bukayo Saka and Viktor Gyokeres could be heading for a low-scoring weekend if history is anything to go by.
Chelsea Winless In Nine After International Break
Conversely, it seems Chelsea’s squad of stars does not find it easy to switch back into club mode.
The Blues have just one win in their last nine games immediately following an international break.
Enzo Maresca’s side has been steadily improving in recent seasons, but it appears that just after an international window is a great time to play Chelsea.
They travel to Nottingham Forest this weekend, and the stats suggest they are unlikely to secure three points.
Manchester City Have The Best Record After The International Break
Topping the table are Manchester City, with 14 wins from their last 17 after the break.
Since the start of 2021, they have lost just once in their first game back after the international window.
City boast one of the most star-studded squads in world football, and lose the vast majority of them to international duty.
But it seems Pep Guardiola has no trouble in getting them back up to speed and firing again in the Premier League.
With an 82% win record, they have won 10% more than any other side immediately after the break.
That form is reflected at the bookmakers, with the Manchester City Vs Everton odds putting City as 2/5 favourites.
Aston Villa Winless In Last Seven After International Window
Despite having an identical record to Arsenal over the same period, Aston Villa’s recent form after the international break has been woeful.
Unai Emery’s side are winless in the last seven matches immediately following the international break.
This reflects their rapid drop in form, with the Midlands club going from the Champions League knockouts to the bottom half of the Premier League within one season.
Brentford Appalling After The Break
But no team has a worse record following international breaks than Brentford.
The Bees have won just two of their last 17 matches after an international window.
That equates to a 12% win rate, the lowest of any current Premier League side.
And what makes this stat worse is that not all of Brentford’s games were in the Premier League, with them only promoted from the Championship in 2021.
They have not lost as many games as Everton, though.
The Toffees have won one more game than Brentford in the same period, but lost 10/17 to give them the lowest points total overall.
