Horse Racing

2025 Lincoln Handicap Trends Point To Horses Aged 6 Or Younger, Carrying 9st 4lbs Or Less

Andy Newton Sports Editor

Published29 Mar 2025

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As horse racing fans gear up for the start of the new flat turf season on Saturday – Andy Newton looks at the key 2025 Lincoln Handicap trends and stats – which can be used to whittle down the big field and help put history on your side.

You can also see Andy Newton’s 1-2-3 ITV Racing Saturday picks and more trends for all the main races.

**2024 Lincoln Hero Mr Professor Bidding To Become Only The Third ‘Back-to-Back’ Winner**

12 months ago, jockey David Egan steered home the Dominic Ffrench Davis-trained Mr Professor to land the Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster and he could be back for more in 2025.

The win was also big success for the best horse racing betting sites in the UK as this 5 year-old returned a 33/1 shot in the market – with the well-backed Irish-trained Chazzesmee out of the placings in fifth.

However, Mr Professor failed to win another race that season – but in his defence was only seen three more times last term.

He’s also since moved yards and is now housed with the Raphael E Freire team in Newmarket, but the Lincoln Handicap trends suggest he’s got it all to do to repeat last year’s win.

Yes, he’s only rated 4lbs higher than his success 12 months ago but it’s the fact this ultra-competitive turf season opener hasn’t been a good race for repeat winners.

The Last Repeat Lincoln Winner Was In The 1950’s

Since the Lincoln was first run back in 1853, there have only been two ‘back-to-back’ winners of the race – with the most recent coming in 1957-58 with a horse called Babur.

While the only other horse to do the double in consecutive seasons was Ob in 1906 and 1907.

WATCH: Mr Professor Winning The 2024 Lincoln Handicap

Mr Professor claims Lincoln glory! 👑

It's joy for David Egan and @Domffd in the @WilliamHill Lincoln Handicap at @DoncasterRaces… pic.twitter.com/bAao6Ia6Uz

— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) March 23, 2024

Lincoln Handicap Trends 2025

20/21 – Aged 6 or younger
19/21 – Carried 9-4 or less
18/21 – Won over at least 1m
17/21 – Won between 2-4 times
16/21 – Having their first run of the flat season
15/21 – Drawn in stall 9 or higher
14/21 – Favourites unplaced
13/21 – Returned a double figure price in the betting
11/21 – Aged 4 years-old
10/21 – Came first or second in last race
10/21 – Officially rated between 95-100
9/21 – Ran at Doncaster
8/21 – Won last time out
8/21 – Ran at either Newmarket or Lingfield last time out
8/21 – From the top 3 in the betting
6/21 – Placed horses from stall 12 (2 winners)
5/21 – Placed horses from stall 16 (1 winner)
4/21 – Favourites (1 in the last 10 runnings)
3/21 – Trained by William Haggas (4 in total)
2/21 – Trained by Charlie Appleby
2/21 – Trained by John Quinn
2/21 – Trained by John Gosden
2/21 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/21 – Ridden by Benoit De La Sayette (2 of last 3)
2/21 – Ridden by James Doyle (2 of last 4)
0/21 – Irish-trained winners
Only two back-to-back winners (Ob, 1906/07 & Babur 1957/58)
10 of the last 14 winners carried between 9-0 and 9-4
Only 1 winner has carried 9-10 in the last 38 runnings
8 of the last 10 winners aged 4 or 5
The average winning SP in the last 21 runnings is 14.5/1

William Haggas Is The Joint-Most Successful Lincoln Handicap Trainer

If you like siding with trainers that do well in certain races – then when it comes to the Lincoln Handicap look no further than William Haggas.

The Newmarket-based handler has fired in four Lincoln wins over the years and is the joint-winning stable in the history of the race.

He shares the spoils with Jack Robinson, who sent out four winners between 1896 and 1910.

The first Haggas Lincoln Handicap winner came back in 1992 with High Low, while his most recent was in 2018 with Addeybb, who went onto be a multiple Group One winner.

William Haggas only has one possible 2025 Lincoln Handicap runner – Godwinson, who was runner-up in the Spring Cup at Newbury on his seasonal reappearance last season.

William Haggas Lincoln Handicap Winners

High Low (1992)
Very Wise (2007)
Penitent (2010)
Addeybb (2018)

Other current yards to have won the race more than once in recent times are John Gosden, Richard Fahey, Charlie Appleby and John Quinn.

The Lincoln Handicap Trends Suggest Looking For Horses Carrying Between 9st and 9st 4lbs

Next up for the 2025 Lincoln Handicap trends to look at the weight carried – being a handicap.

The stats tell us that horses that have carried between 9st and 9st 4lbs have done best – winning 10 of the last 14 runnings (71%).

While if you want a bigger return, then 19 of the last 21 winners (90%) won carrying 9st 4lbs or less.

Last year’s winner Mr Professor ticked this stat again – crossing the line with just 8st 8lbs.

Plus, every winner between 2015 and 2019 supported the 9st to 9st 4lbs stat.

The Last Irish-Trained Lincoln Winner Was In 1984

12 months ago, punters latched onto the James ‘Fozzy’ Stack-trained Chazzesmee – backing the horse into 5/2 favourite.

But, as already mentioned, this Irish runner was only fifth and out of the frame.

Now aged 7, the horse could be back again off only a pound higher rating – but the worry is we’ve not had an Irish-trained Lincoln winner since 1984.

Okay, I’m not sure how many have tried – maybe not a lot.

But it’s still worth noting that the last winner from the Emerald Isle was the Dermot Weld-trained Saving Mercy, who was ridden by ‘The Choirboy’ Walter Swinburn.

Recent Curragh winner Orandi, for trainer Tony Martin, is the only Irish runner in the race in 2025.

95% Of The Last 21 Lincoln Handicap Winners Were Aged 6 or Younger

The next Lincoln Handicap trend to look for is age.

This is because this Doncaster race tends to got to horses aged 6 or younger (20 of the last 21).

Yes, we saw a 7 year-old winner in 2023 (Migration), but he was the only winner aged older than 6 since 1998.

We can also take this stat a bit further with 80% of the last 10 winners aged 4 or 5 years-old – last year’s hero Mr Professor was aged 5.

While between 2016 and 2021 EVERY winner of the Lincoln was aged 4.

Those aged 7+ this year are – Beringer (10), Orandi (7), Fantastic Fox (7), Dual Identity (7) and Sean (8).

Recent Lincoln Handicap Trends Point To Horses Drawn 9 Or Higher

Finally, the Lincoln drawn has also played a role over the years.

Yes, last year Mr Professor won from a low berth (2) and since 2010 we’ve actually seen five winners drawn 4 or lower.

Therefore, you can’t totally rule out those drawn low. Two of the last three winners were drawn 2 and 4.

But just edging since 2015 are the horses drawn slightly higher – with 7 of the last 9 (78%) Lincoln Handicap winners drawn between 10-20.

The most popular draws in the last 15 runnings have been 3, 10 and 12 – with two wins each and a 40% return if you coupled this trio up over this time period.

Those drawn 1-8 this year are – Dual Identity (1), Orandi (2), Godwinson (3), Orne (4), Dashing Darcey (5), Beringer (6), Apiarist (7) and Whip Cracker (8).

Lincoln Winners Draw (Last 15)

2024 – MR PROFESSOR – 2
2023 – MIGRATION – 12
2022 – JOHAN – 4
2021 – HAQEEQY – 10
2020 – No Race (Covid)
2019 – AUXERRE – 17
2018 – ADDEYBB – 10
2017 – BRAVERY – 20
2016 – SECRET BRIEF – 22
2015 – GABRIAL – 15
2014 – OCEAN TEMPEST – 3
2013 – LEVITATE – 3
2012 – BRAE HILL – 12
2011 – SWEET LIGHTNING – 16
2010 – PENITENT – 1
2009 – EXPRESSO STAR – 9

Three Horses That Tick Most Of The Key Trends

If we apply three of the key trends to the race – 19/21 won with 9st 4lbs or less, 15/21 were drawn 9 or higher and 20/21 aged 6 or younger – these three horses have a lot going for them.

NATIVE WARRIOR
ALPHA CRUCIS
OLD COCK

Lincoln Handicap Race Details

📅Date: Saturday 29th March 2025
⌚Time: 3:35pm
🏇Racecourse: Doncaster
🔄Trip: 1m
💷Winner: £77,310
📺 TV: ITV4 / SkySports Racing

See the full ITV Racing Saturday schedule here.

Lincoln Handicap Winners (Last 10 Runnings)

2024 – MR PROFESSOR (33/1)
2023 – MIGRATION (18/1)
2022 – JOHAN (28/1)
2021 – HAQEEQY (9/2)
2020 – No Race (Covid)
2019 – AUXERRE (5/2 fav)
2018 – ADDEYBB (5/1)
2017 – BRAVERY (20/1)
2016 – SECRET BRIEF (12/1)
2015 – GABRIAL (12/1)
2014 – OCEAN TEMPEST (33/1)