Arsenal are set to win the Premier League title, but with the lowest points total since Leicester City shocked the world to lift the trophy a decade ago.
That’s according to Opta, who give Arsenal a 75.56% chance of winning the league and an expected points total of 81.09.
Arsenal overwhelming favourites to win Premier League
Arsenal appear on track to finally win the Premier League title.
On Sunday, the Gunners marched to a 4-1 victory over fierce rivals Tottenham Hotspur at the Emirates Stadium. Eberechi Eze, who was on the verge of joining Spurs last summer, took the match ball home after scoring the first North London derby hat-trick in Premier League history.
With Manchester City losing to Newcastle United on Saturday, Arsenal’s win took them six points clear at the top of the Premier League table.
STATEMENT MADE. pic.twitter.com/X0LrLDphPR
— Arsenal (@Arsenal) November 23, 2025
Manchester City are third in the table with 22 points, trailing Arsenal by seven.
Owing to Mikel Arteta’s side’s fast start, Opta has made them the overwhelming favourites to win the Premier League title. Their chances of winning the title stand at 75.56%.
However, according to Opta, Arsenal are expected to finish with 81.09 points, which would make them the lowest-scoring champions since Leicester City a decade ago.
The Foxes won the 2015/16 Premier League title with 81 points, finishing 10 clear of runners-up Arsenal.
Opta Supercomputer Predicts Premier League Top 10 After Gameweek 12
| Pos | Team | xPts | Title % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 81.09 | 75.56% |
| 2 | Man City | 71.18 | 14.30% |
| 3 | Chelsea | 65.11 | 3.88% |
| 4 | Liverpool | 64.05 | 2.13% |
| 5 | Aston Villa | 61.92 | 1.55% |
| 6 | Crystal Palace | 61.02 | 1.20% |
| 7 | Brighton | 57.67 | 0.48% |
| 8 | Man Utd | 56.34 | 0.37% |
| 9 | Newcastle | 55.95 | 0.20% |
| 10 | Bournemouth | 54.93 | 0.22% |
According to Opta, Manchester City are the second favourites to win the Premier League title, with a 14.30% chance.
Chelsea, who currently occupy the second position in the table, have a 3.88% chance of winning the championship.
And in fourth, we have Premier League title holders Liverpool with a 2.13% chance.
The last time a team won the Premier League with 81 points, Liverpool finished outside of the top six. Arne Slot’s side are currently in 11th place with 18 points.
Arsenal’s points average predicted to drop off
Arsenal have secured 29 points in the Premier League after only 12 matches. At this rate, they should finish the season with more than 90 points.
However, Opta’s Supercomputer feels a correction is coming, and below could explain the reasons why.
Arsenal’s poor record in the second half
In the last three years, Arsenal have made a habit of getting off to a good start in the Premier League. However, they have struggled to carry the momentum into the second half of the campaign.
In the 2022/23 season, Arsenal were the favourites to win the title after scoring 44 points in the first 19 games.
In the second half, their challenge fizzled out, as they dropped points in 10 of 19 games (D 5, L 5).
The following season, they had taken the top spot by Gameweek 17. From the next Matchday, they hit a slump, as they scored just one point from the following three matches.
Arsenal charged to a strong finish, but the mid-season slump cost them the title.
The North London club were not really in contention to win the top-flight title in 2024/25, thanks to Liverpool’s dominant display.
However, the worrying trend continued, as they dropped more points in the second half of the season (22) than they did in the first (18).
Arsenal are in a comfortable position to win the Premier League title this season. But a slump in the second half of the season cannot be ruled out.
Regression to the mean is likely
Arsenal have scored 24 goals in the Premier League — the joint-highest in the division alongside Manchester City. They have generated an xG of 21.26, meaning they have scored roughly three goals more than they were expected to.
Early-season overperformance tends to flatten in the second half of the season. Opta’s Supercomputer is forecasting that correction.
The Gunners could find it more difficult to edge out difficult matches. They have already won four matches by a single goal, and these types of results can swing the other way once the variance levels off.
Fixture congestion to play a part
In the first half of the season, teams have more breathing room as the fixture schedule is less congested. Things take a turn for the worse after the Christmas break.
Arsenal are competing in the UEFA Champions League, the EFL Cup, and the FA Cup alongside the Premier League.
They have been particularly impressive in Europe, as they lead the Champions League winner betting odds market ahead of Bayern Munich and PSG.
While winning the Premier League would be the priority, a club of Arsenal’s stature cannot afford to drop out of the Champions League without putting up a fight.
With the difficulty increasing with each game, fatigue could set in and take a toll on Arsenal’s Premier League form.
Injuries to key defenders
On paper, Arsenal have enough cover for their star players, but quality takes a significant dip when key players are injured. The Gunners are particularly vulnerable in defence, as they heavily rely on the first-choice options.
In the 2022/23 season, Arsenal’s title charge stuttered after William Saliba picked up an injury in the business end of the season.
The Frenchman has stayed fit this season, but his partner, Gabriel, is out with a thigh injury.
Before his injury, the Brazilian was the standout defender in the Premier League. He had made 12 tackles, won back possession 15 times, made 13 blocks, won 38 of 63 aerial duels, scored one goal, and provided two assists.
Before the North London derby, Mikel Arteta said his star centre-back would be out for a “few weeks.” If Saliba also picks up an injury, Arsenal could find themselves in a tough spot.
