The xG Premier League table shows that Liverpool are actually underperforming even more than their results suggest so far this season.
It’s been a torrid start to their title defence for Liverpool in 2025-26.
The Premier League champions have fallen off a cliff in terms of results in recent weeks.
Arne Slot’s side won their first seven in all competitions after their Community Shield loss to Crystal Palace on penalties.
But they have since lost seven of the last nine, and were thumped 3-0 at Manchester City on Sunday.
As a result, they have slipped from the top of the Premier League, all the way to eighth place.
The stats show that Liverpool’s attempt to retain the title is already over, but the situation is actually worse than it looks.
That’s because Liverpool have outperformed their xG (expected goals) so far.
Below, we have compared the xG Premier League table to the real table, to see who else is performing better or worse than expected.
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Key Data Points:
- Liverpool’s expected points (xPts) are even worse than their current tally.
- Aston Villa should be in the relegation zone according to xG.
- Crystal Palace would be third according to xG.
- Newcastle and Leeds are better than their results suggest.
The xG Premier League Table
For the xG table, a team’s expected goals for and against from each match are recorded, with the results fed in to calculate expected points.
For example, if a team had an xG of 1.05, but actually scored two goals in that game, they would be recorded as scoring once.
In some games, the xG for and against for teams differs from the real scoreline enough to change the result.
Because of this, teams have a different xPts (expected points) to their real tally.
The table below therefore orders the teams based on xPts, with their real position shown in the left-hand column.
As the table shows, Arsenal and Manchester City would retain the top two places.
But Arsenal’s four-point lead would be reduced to less than two if results reflected xG.
Mikel Arteta’s team have 26 points, but have outperformed their xPts by 2.35.
This means that their results have earned them 2.35 points more than predicted by xG.
City, meanwhile, are close to their xPts, with only a 0.14 gap. This would indicate Pep Guardiola’s men are right where they should expect to be, based on their performances.
What Is xG And How Is It Calculated?
Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures how likely a player is to have scored any given chance.
Invented by Opta in 2012, it has become a mainstay of football analytics.
With xG, every shot is given a score from zero to one. A higher number indicates a chance that’s more likely to be scored.
The number is based on Opta’s historical data, which includes around one million past shots.
Factors taken into consideration include angles, distance, goalkeeper positioning, shot type and the position of other players.
For example, a shot given an xG of 0.4 means the player had a 40% chance of scoring from that opportunity.
Over the season, those xG figures can be added and compared to the real tally, so see if a team is over or underperforming compared to xG.
If a team is scoring well below their xG, it suggests they are playing well but struggling to finish chances.
This could be down to luck, or indicate an issue with the team’s strikers.
Conversely, a team outscoring their xG may be reliant on clinical finishers, or have gotten lucky on multiple occasions.
Liverpool’s xG Suggests They Are Playing Even Worse Than Results
According to the xG table, Liverpool’s xPts total is 16.46.
This means they actually have 1.54 more points than their performances have warranted.
It’s already been a poor start for the Reds, but the stats indicate that they should be even worse off than they are.
Liverpool have lost more matches this season than in the entirety of their 2024/25 title-winning campaign ❌
Three of their next five fixtures are against teams currently in the bottom five… pic.twitter.com/gs5HaIuiO1
— Premier League (@premierleague) November 10, 2025
Arne Slot is already under mounting pressure, with the next Liverpool manager odds shortening rapidly.
And if these stats are to be believed, the champions are actually lucky to be on as many points as they are.
Aston Villa In The Relegation Zone According to xG Premier League Table
Liverpool may be doing a little better than the xG table suggests, but Aston Villa are miles apart from their xPts tally.
Unai Emery’s side started poorly, but have since won five of their last six to climb quickly up the standings.
Villa sit sixth in the table, just four points off second-placed Manchester City.
But the xG table tells a very different story.
With an xPts tally of just 10.80, Villa would actually be 18th in the table if every team had their expected totals.
The Midlands club have therefore been hugely over-performing expectations, and picking up results they have no right to.
Crystal Palace Desperately Unlucky Not To Be Better Off
Another side with a hugely different position in the xG table compared with the real one are Crystal Palace.
Palace are currently 10th in a tightly-packed mid-table battle.
Oliver Glasner’s side have looked good, but drawn five of their 11 games and struggled to get over the line at times.
Were the table based on xPts, they would actually sit third in the standings.
The Eagles have underperformed their xPts by 2.14, meaning they should actually be on 19 points and in the Champions League places.
Newcastle And Leeds United Not As Bad As Results Indicate
While Palace and Liverpool have outperformed their xG, two sides under pressure have severely underperformed theirs.
Both Newcastle United and Leeds have seen results slipping and them being dragged closer to the bottom three.
The pair are now just two and one point above the drop zone respectively.
But Newcastle should be 4.68 points better off, while Leeds are 4.49 points worse off than their xPts total.
This suggests that both are actually playing better than their results are showing.
With Leeds and Newcastle keeping tabs on Fulham boss Marco Silva, a managerial change is being considered at both clubs.
But the stats indicate that perhaps performances aren’t as bad as the table makes out.
