How Salah’s Current Scoring Rate Could Push His Record Beyond Reach

Updated
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Liverpool Mohamed Salah Egypt AFCON deadline

Mohamed Salah scored twice as Egypt beat Djibouti 3-0 in their penultimate African World Cup qualifier on Wednesday, firing his country to next year’s showpiece.

With the brace, the Liverpool superstar also became the all-time top scorer in African World Cup qualifiers, surpassing greats like Didier Drogba and Samuel Eto’o.

Having scored only two goals in seven matches, Salah has drawn fire for his poor goalscoring form in the Premier League. Ahead of Gameweek 5, many budget FPL gems, including Antoine Semenyo, had a better points per game ratio than Salah.

However, for Egypt, he has been scoring at an admirable rate. With the AFCON and World Cup coming up, his tally could rise significantly.

Mohamed Salah Is the Highest-Ever Scorer in African World Cup Qualifiers

Mohamed Salah has long established himself as the most successful Egyptian player in history. The 33-year-old has played 108 games for his country in all competitions, scoring 63 times and providing 26 assists. In the African World Cup qualifiers, he has scored 20 times in only 29 matches. This year, he has scored four goals and provided an assist in five African World Cup qualifiers.

After Salah’s double against Djibouti, here is the updated African World Cup qualifiers scorers’ list:

Rank Player Goals Games (Apps)
1 Mohamed Salah 20 29
2 Islam Slimani 18 24
3 Didier Drogba 18 19
4 Samuel Eto’o 18 29
5 Moumouni Dagano 17 23
6 Emmanuel Adebayor 16 21
7 Dennis Oliech 15 24
8 Amr Zaki 12 19
9 Michael Olunga 11 19
10 Razak Omotoyossi 11 23

Salah’s brace against Djibouti proved to be historic, as it took him ahead of some of the most respected names in African football. The coming months could prove to be even better.

Salah Has Been Scoring at a Rapid Rate in 2025

Egypt will compete in the FIFA Arab Cup in December. However, Mohamed Salah is unlikely to be called up for that one. Instead, he is expected to represent his country in the African Cup of Nations (AFCON) in January.

This year, Salah has scored four goals in five international matches for Egypt, scoring at a rate of 0.8 goals per game. Over the course of the African World Cup qualifiers, Salah has scored nine goals in as many appearances. Egypt still has one World Cup qualifier left, but the Liverpool man could sit that one out, as the Pharaohs have already qualified for next summer’s tournament.

Considering his career stats for Egypt, Salah has scored 63 goals in 108 appearances, averaging 0.57 goals per game since making his debut in 2011. Meanwhile, in the AFCON, he has scored seven goals in 19 appearances, taking his average to 0.37.

Context Games Goals Goals per Game
2025 5 4 0.8
World Cup 2026 Qualifiers 9 9 1.0
Total Egypt Career 108 63 0.58
AFCON career 19 7 0.37

Mo Salah Could Score Up to Six Goals in AFCON 2026

Egypt tend to reach at least the quarter-finals in the AFCON, meaning Salah could play five games. If they reach the final, Salah is likely to play seven matches.

In the AFCON, Salah averages 0.37 goals per game. So, taking the conservative estimate, he should score around three goals in the lead-up to Egypt’s final charge. Based on current form (0.8 goals/game), he could end up with six goals, which would make him a favourite for the Golden Boot.

Salah AFCON 2026 Goal Projection

  • Conservative Projection (Career Rate 0.58 GPG): ~4 Goals (7 ×0.58)
  •  Form-Based Projection (0.8 GPG): ~6 Goals (7 × 0.8)
  • AFCON-Specific Projection (0.37 GPG): ~3 Goals (7 × 0.37)

Salah Could Score Three to Four Goals in World Cup 2026

Egypt’s last World Cup appearance came in Russia 2018. They lost all three group-stage matches and crashed out of the competition in the first round. Mohamed Salah scored both of Egypt’s goals in the competition in two appearances.

The sample size is small, but Salah averages a goal per game in the FIFA World Cup. Before the group-stage draw, it is difficult to predict how far Egypt could go and whether Salah will be able to match his 2018 scoring rate.

In all our projections, we are backing Egypt to reach the first knockout round, meaning they would play four matches.

Salah FIFA World Cup 2026 Goal Projection

  • Conservative Projection (Career Rate 0.58 GPG): ~2 Goals (4 ×0.58)
  • Form-Based Projection (0.8 GPG): ~3 Goals (4 × 0.8)
  • World Cup-Specific Projection (1.0 GPG): ~4 Goals (4 × 1.0)

We will be sure to fine-tune the article with the latest data closer to the tournaments.