As the Premier League relegation battle starts to take shape, we’ve looked back through history to see how likely the current bottom three are to survive come the end of the season – and it’s not looking good for Wolves.
With the season entering its third month, we are beginning to see where teams fit in the pecking order.
After eight games, Wolves, West Ham and Nottingham Forest occupy the bottom three.
With two, four and five points respectively, they have among the lowest combined points tally for the bottom three at this stage of the season (11) in Premier League history.
But while things look bleak for these three as it stands, are any of them truly dead and buried yet?
How Often Have Teams Survived Premier League Relegation From So Few Points?
To find out, we at SportsCasting have analysed historic league tables from every season in the 20-team Premier League era.
In doing so, we have been able to determine how many times a team has escaped relegation from the same position or worse than each of Forest, West Ham and Wolves are in now.
The table below shows how many times a team has survived with five, four and two points or fewer at this stage of the season.
| Nottingham Forest – 5pts | West Ham – 4pts | Wolves – 2pts | |
| Survived | 21/52 | 15/35 | 3/9 |
| Survival Rate | 40% | 43% | 33% |
As the data shows, none of the three teams in the relegation zone are certain to go down, but the odds are against them.
Of the 52 teams to have five points or fewer after eight games, 21 have managed to survive come the end of the season.
This means that 40% of teams have been able to stay up from an equal or worse position than Nottingham Forest are currently in.
A look at the Premier League table after MW8! 👀📈 pic.twitter.com/d5nZPIgiIE
— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) October 21, 2025
Surprisingly, despite West Ham’s relegation odds being slashed in recent weeks, that percentage actually increases slightly for team’s in the Irons’ position.
Fifteen of the 35 teams to have four points or fewer at this stage have escaped the drop, equating to a 43% survival rate.
But there is a sharp drop off when looking at Wolves.
Only nine teams have ever had two points or fewer after eight games of the 20-team Premier League season.
Of those, only three have ever stayed up, one of the being Wolves themselves last season.
Premier League Teams Surviving With 2pts Or Fewer After Eight Games
- Wolves 2024-25 2pts
- Everton 2023-24 -1pts
- Newcastle 2018-19 2pts
That gives the Midlands side a 33% chance of survival from their current circumstances, if history is anything to go by.
Who Will Be Relegated From the Premier League This Season?
Wolves
The stats look pretty dire for Wolves at the moment.
Winless, bottom of the table, and with only three teams ever surviving from an equal or worse footing than they are currently on.
But fans can take some encouragement from knowing they are one of those sides, and managed the great escape as recently as last season.
It will not be easy for Wolves to turn around their season and survive, but as they proved a year ago, it’s not impossible.
If they can show the same resilience that got them out of trouble last season, they still have a puncher’s chance.
West Ham
There are massive issues from top to bottom at the London club.
West Ham fans planned a boycott ahead of Monday’s 2-0 defeat at home to Brentford.
And with protests and fan anger in danger of spiralling out of control, the Irons look like a club in free-fall.
But on the pitch at least, all is not yet lost.
Almost half of the 35 teams in an equal or worse position to West Ham after eight games have been able to survive, with 15 staying up.
But the atmosphere around the club feels more toxic than ever, and the team is already beginning to look defeated before a ball is kicked.
Nottingham Forest
The calamitous fall of Nottingham Forest in less than a year will be talked about for a very long time.
Few would believe they could be in the bottom three after narrowly missing out on the Champions League last season.
But the ego of owner Evangelos Marinakis has been a major factor, and they have already sacked two managers.
However the stats suggest Nottingham Forest are set for a new manager bounce under Sean Dyche.
If that happens, they may yet stay up, especially with a pragmatic relegation survival specialist in the dugout.
Burnley
Recent seasons have turned Burnley into the ultimate yo-yo club.
Down, then up, then down then up again, they have proved themselves too strong for the Championship but unable to re-establish themselves in the top flight.
But as it stands, they are above the drop zone and looking like they may have enough to stay up, albeit narrowly.
The Clarets will need to keep picking up points however they can, but they are looking good for now.
And if they can stay up for another season, an extra year of Premier League money should help them maintain their position moving forwards.
Leeds United
With eight points from eight games, Leeds are just about averaging enough to survive.
The old adage indicates that 40 points is the total needed to guarantee survival, but this is rarely the case.
Should Leeds maintain their form and finish on their projected 38 points, they will almost certainly survive.
Premier League Relegation Odds 2025-26
- Burnley 4/9
- Wolves 1/2
- West Ham 10/11
- Sunderland 11/4
- Leeds 11/4
- Nottingham Forest 3/1
Despite neither side occupying the current bottom three, both Sunderland and Burnley are still among the favourites for Premier League relegation.
Meanwhile, Nottingham Forest are only 3/1 to go down, with five teams given shorter odds.
This reflects the recent difficulties faced in staying up for newly-promoted teams.
But with so much football left to play, it remains to be seen whether the bookies, or the history books, will have made the right prediction.
