Jon Rahm Finds Himself in Tiger Woods Territory, Giving Him No Excuse Not to Win the 2023 Mexico Open
Jon Rahm didn’t need to show up this week.
Sure, he’s the reigning champion of the Mexico Open at Vidanta, but only eight of the top 100 players in the Official World Golf Ranking traveled south of the border this year. The purse of $7.7 million is also one of the smallest on the PGA Tour schedule this season.
Rahm still decided to honor his commitment and show up at Vidanta Vallarta to defend his title, and considering he’s the biggest PGA Tour favorite since Tiger Woods in 2013, he has no excuse not to bulldoze this weak field and win his second straight Mexico Open.
Jon Rahm is the biggest PGA Tour favorite since Tiger Woods in 2013
Throughout Tiger Woods’ prime, sportsbooks were so afraid of him that they made him close to even odds every time he teed it up on the PGA Tour. Woods was a +150 favorite entering the 2000 PGA Championship and the 2001 Masters — two events he went on to win — which translates to a win percentage of 40%.
Think about that. Tiger regularly had close to a 50% chance to beat more than 100 golfers over a four-day stretch, and more often than not, he did.
We don’t see those odds on the PGA Tour anymore. With the depth of talent in professional golf today, favorites normally go off somewhere between +700 and +1000, and they seem to rotate between Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler, and Rory McIlroy.
This week is different. Besides Rahm, the World No. 1, Tony Finau is the only player in the Mexico Open field ranked inside the top 67 in the OWGR. Andrew Putnam is the third-highest-ranked player at No. 68. Because of this talent disparity, Rahm has been pegged as a +250 favorite to win the 2023 Mexico Open.
According to a tweet from Chris Gregory of Covers.com, Rahm is the biggest favorite on the PGA Tour since Woods at the 2013 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Of course, Tiger won by two.
Jon Rahm has no excuse not to win the 2023 Mexico Open
There’s no question Rahm is the best player in the world right now. The Spaniard has already dusted elite fields at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, the Genesis Invitational, and the Masters this season alone. Now, he heads to Vidanta Villarta to go up against one of the weakest fields we’re going to see all year.
Rahm is one of just nine players in the top 100 of the OWGR teeing it up this week, and seven of them are ranked outside the top 67. There’s no Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, or Justin Thomas to beat this week, and Rahm has been winning even when those elite golfers are battling him at the top of the leaderboard.
At +250, Rahm has an implied 29% chance to win the 2023 Mexico Open, and truthfully, that number should probably be higher. The Masters champ has no excuse not to go back-to-back at Vidanta.