NFL Week 12 Picks: Best Bets, Underdog Moneyline, and Teaser of the Week
For the first time all season, the NFL best bets column isn’t over .500. After another 1-5 record in Week 11, we’ve dropped to 33-33 on the year and down 0.25 units.
Lesser bettors would panic in the midst of a cold streak, but not me. The only way out of this hole is to keep pushing toward the finish line, and that starts this Sunday. The late-season push to profitability starts now.
NFL Week 12 best bets, let’s go!
NFL Week 12 best bets
2022 Best Bets Record: 26-29 (-2.45 units)
All betting odds courtesy of FanDuel as of 11/26.
Favorite Favorite: Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 at Tennessee Titans
Don’t be fooled by the Titans’ 7-3 record through 10 games. This is no more than a mediocre team exceeding expectations because of Mike Vrabel. All of Tennessee’s wins this season came against bottom-tier offenses, and it lost to the two best offenses it’s faced in the Kansas City Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills.
The Bengals will be the third-best offense the Titans have faced this year, and they should be able to put up points even without Joe Mixon in the lineup.
Favorite Underdog: Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 vs. Baltimore Ravens
Unlike the Titans, the Jaguars are a much better team than their record suggests. Jacksonville is only 3-7, but six of its losses came by one score. The ball is going to bounce their way in one of these close games, and I think this will be the week.
The Ravens offense didn’t look impressive last week in a narrow victory against the Carolina Panthers, and that type of performance won’t fly against a Jaguars team that has scored at least 17 points in each of their last five games.
Favorite Over: San Francisco 49ers vs. New Orleans Saints over 43
Don’t look now, but the 49ers are starting to look like a serious threat to win the NFC and return to the Super Bowl. Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle are all healthy, which has powered San Francisco to score 30.33 points per game over the last three weeks.
The Saints just gave up 20 points each to the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Los Angeles Rams, two of the most putrid offenses in the NFL. San Fran should have no problem scoring 30 in this one, and New Orleans just needs to put up 14 to get us the over.
Favorite Under: Philadelphia Eagles vs. Green Bay Packers under 46.5
The Eagles failed to score 20 points last week for the first time all season, and it came against a mediocre-at-best Indianapolis Colts defense. Philadelphia can’t execute its offense the way it wants without Dallas Goedert on the field, and the Packers have the horses in the secondary to contain A.J. Brown and Co.
Green Bay should also be held in check on the offensive end with Aaron Jones banged up and a weak stable of wide receivers going up against an elite secondary. Points should be at a premium in this one.
Favorite Underdog Moneyline: Carolina Panthers +106 vs. Denver Broncos
This Broncos offense might be the most embarrassing unit in the NFL. Denver ranks dead last in the league in points per game (14.7), which is bad news going up against a Panthers defense that surrendered just 13 points to the Baltimore Ravens last week and 15 points to the Atlanta Falcons a week prior.
Sam Darnold can’t be any worse than Baker Mayfield has played this season, so let’s fade the Broncos once again.
Teaser of the Week
2022 Teaser of the Week Record: 7-4 (+2.2 units)
New York Jets PK/Carolina Panthers +7.5
Justin Fields is questionable to play on Sunday due to a separated shoulder. If he’s unable to suit up, the Jets should have no problem winning this game now that Zach Wilson won’t be holding them back.
As for the other leg, I don’t think the Broncos are capable of beating a Pop Warner team by more than one score. In what should be a low-scoring game, I trust the Panthers to keep it close and have a chance to win.
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