4 Bets You Need to Target in NFL Week 4 Based on a 19-Year Betting Trend Hitting at 60%

We’re already through three weeks of the NFL season, and only two teams — the Philadelphia Eagles and the Miami Dolphins — remain undefeated. Even more impressively, though, four teams are still undefeated against the spread.

If you strictly bet on the Dolphins, the Detroit Lions, the Atlanta Falcons, and the Houston Texans against the spread in the first three weeks, you’d be a combined 12-0. Now, you might be itching to load up on these four teams in Week 4, but there’s a 60% betting trend that says you should fade all four this week.

Only four NFL teams are 3-0 against the spread

Aidan Hutchinson celebrates his first NFL sack.
Aidan Hutchinson of the Detroit Lions celebrates after a sack against the Washington Commanders | Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

Just as we all expected, the only four teams still undefeated against the spread through three weeks are the Dolphins, Lions, Falcons, and Texans. But, wait. The Dolphins make sense, but the other three teams have a combined record of 2-6-1. How are they all 3-0 ATS?

That’s the beauty of sports betting, baby.

The Lions lost but covered as 5.5-point underdogs against the Eagles, won outright as short underdogs against the Washington Commanders, and lost but covered as six-point underdogs against the Minnesota Vikings. The Falcons lost but covered as 5.5-point underdogs against the New Orleans Saints, lost but covered as 10.5-point dogs against the LA Rams, and beat the Seattle Seahawks outright. As for the Texans, they tied the Colts to cover +7, lost but covered as 10.5-point underdogs against the Denver Broncos, and lost but covered as four-point dogs against the Chicago Bears.

Winning games doesn’t always equal covering the spread. Some teams are rated at the bottom of the market but can maintain a winning ATS record by keeping games close. All four of these teams have exceeded oddsmakers’ expectations through three weeks, but that doesn’t mean you should expect them to continue doing so.

The 60% betting trend that screams to fade the Lions, Dolphins, Falcons, and Texans in Week 4

According to Action Network, NFL teams that start the season 3-0 against the spread are just 27-40-1 ATS in Week 4 since 2003. That’s a 60% win rate if you’ve blindly faded these teams for 19 years.

When teams exceed expectations early on in the season, oddsmakers adjust their ratings to stop them from killing the sportsbooks. That leads to some inflated (or deflated) spreads in Week 4, and as we’ve seen since 2003, bettors can take advantage.

If you want to ride the trend, here are the four bets you should target for Week 4.

Bengals -3.5 vs. Dolphins
Chargers -5.5 vs. Texans
Seahawks +4.5 vs. Lions
Browns -1.5 vs. Falcons

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