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Aaron Rodgers has been playing quarterback in the NFL for 17 years. He’s never been a double-digit underdog once in his career… until today.

That’s right, the Green Bay Packers are 10.5-point underdogs against the Buffalo Bills on Sunday Night Football. It’s not all that surprising considering the Bills might be the best team in the NFL at 5-1 and the Packers have lost three straight games, but it’s still discombobulating to see a Rodgers-led team this disrespected in the betting market.

This is a tough game to handicap from a spread perspective, so let’s try for a juicier payout with a few first touchdown scorer bets for Sunday Night Football between the Bills and Packers.

Josh Allen +800

Josh Allen currently ranks second in the NFL in touchdown passes with 17, but he’s been almost as effective with his legs as he has been with his arm. Through six games, Allen has rushed for 257 yards and two touchdowns. He’s attempted at least 10 rushes in three of his six starts this year, and he recorded a season-high 12 carries last game against the Kansas City Chiefs.

Allen is always a threat to tuck and run on passing plays, and the Bills love to use him as a designed runner in the red zone. Let’s hope Buffalo dials one up for its star quarterback early this Sunday night.

Dawson Knox +1200

Dawson Knox celebrates after scoring a touchdown.
Buffalo Bills tight end Dawson Knox celebrates after catching a touchdown against the Kansas City Chiefs | Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire

Dawson Knox finally found the end zone last game against the Chiefs for the first time this season, and I expect Allen to keep targeting his trusty tight end in the red zone this week. Knox scored nine touchdowns in 14 starts last season, so he’s due for some positive TD regression after a quiet six games to start the year.

Stefon Diggs (+600) and Gabriel Davis (+700) aren’t juicy enough for my liking. If I’m going to take a Bills pass-catcher to score first on Sunday night, Knox is by far my favorite bet.

AJ Dillon +1700


Is Josh Allen Already the Best QB in Bills History?

It was a puzzling performance from AJ Dillon last week. The running back recorded just four carries against the Washington Commanders and turned them into only 15 yards, and he didn’t see a single target in the passing game.

If the Packers are going to hang with the Bills tonight, they’ll need to run the ball effectively and keep Allen off the field. That means Dillon should be in line for a bigger workload on Sunday night, and he should be option No. 1 if Green bay moves the ball inside the red zone early in the first quarter.

At 17/1 odds (FanDuel), Dillon is my favorite Packers bet on the board.

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