The Dallas Cowboys will enter the 2022-23 NFL season with high expectations after a 12-5 year and an NFC East title. Mike McCarthy’s squad got it done on both sides of the ball last season, as it led the NFL in points per game (31.2) and yards per game (407.0) while also leading the league in takeaways (34).

Unsurprisingly, the Cowboys have been pegged as the betting favorites to repeat as NFC East champions at +135 odds. Dallas also has one of the highest preseason win totals in the NFL at 10.5, but you’d be wise to bet on Dak Prescott and Co. to fall short of that number this year.

The Cowboys are tied for the third-highest win total in the NFL

There aren’t many double-digit win totals in the NFL this season. The Buffalo Bills and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are tied for the highest in the league at 11.5, but the Cowboys are right behind.

Dallas is tied for the third-highest win total in the NFL at 10.5, with the over set at +105 and the under at -130 (FanDuel). The Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Rams, Kansas City Chiefs, and Baltimore Ravens are the four other teams with a win total of 10.5.

The over may look enticing here for a few reasons. For one, most of the core from last year’s 12-5 squad is back in Dallas. Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, CeeDee Lamb, Trevon Diggs, and Micah Parsons all return to the Cowboys for another season.

Additionally, the Cowboys get to line up against the lowly NFC East six times. Dallas went 6-0 against division rivals last season, winning by a ridiculous average of 22.2 points per game. According to Sharp Football Analysis, the Cowboys have the 10th-easiest schedule in the NFL this year.

Everything seems to be lining up for an easy over, right?

Wrong.

Why you should bet the Cowboys to go under 10.5 wins

The Cowboys may seem like an over team in 2022-23 because of their returning stars and soft schedule, but there’s more to the story than that.

What about the players Dallas lost this offseason?

The Cowboys decided to trade star wide receiver Amari Cooper to the Cleveland Browns instead of offering him another contract. They also lost Cedrick Wilson Jr. in free agency, leaving Michael Gallup and James Washington as the two starting receivers alongside Lamb. Both players are likely to miss the start of the season due to injury, so Noah Brown and Jalen Tolbert are expected to take their place in Week 1. Good luck keeping up with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with that unimpressive stable of WRs.

Dallas also lost 40% of its starting offensive line this summer, as La’el Collins and Connor Williams both left in free agency. The offensive line has been a strength of this offense for years, but that may not be the case this season.

As for the schedule, the Cowboys drew the two reigning Super Bowl teams in the Rams and the Bengals. They’ll also face the Buccaneers, Packers, Vikings, Colts, and Titans. The NFC East won’t be as much of a cakewalk this season, either, as the Eagles, Giants, and Commanders all improved over the offseason.

The Cowboys, on the other hand, did not.

This is a worse roster than the one that went 12-5 last season, and the front office didn’t do enough to replace the talent Dallas lost.

Take the under on 10.5 wins.

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