NFL Super Wild Card Weekend Betting Preview: Odds, Props, and Best Bets for the AFC Bracket
Ah, Wild Card Weekend. By far one of the best sports weekends of the entire year. And this one’s no different, especially on the AFC side of the bracket.
The fun begins with a Saturday doubleheader, as the Las Vegas Raiders take on Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals, and AFC East rivals clash in the third meeting between the New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills. Then, on Sunday night, the reigning AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs welcome the Pittsburgh Steelers to town.
It’s going to be a ton of fun to watch some playoff football this weekend, but you know what would be even more fun? Making some money at the same time.
NFL Super Wild Card Weekend schedule, spreads, and totals in the AFC
(5)Las Vegas Raiders at (4)Cincinnati Bengals
- Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET on NBC
- Spread: Bengals -5
- Total: 48
- Moneyline: Raiders +180, Bengals -220
The Raiders could’ve clinched a playoff spot by running the clock out and settling for a tie against the Los Angeles Chargers last weekend, but it’s a good thing they didn’t. Because Las Vegas opted for a game-winning field goal, Derek Carr and Co. avoided the Chiefs in the first round of the playoffs.
Instead, they’ll travel to Cincinnati to face off against the AFC North champion Bengals.
The biggest storyline in this matchup is the inexperience across the board. Both teams have a head coach and a starting quarterback making their postseason debuts on Saturday, which just screams for you to take the underdog.
(6)New England Patriots at (3)Buffalo Bills
- Saturday, 8:15 p.m ET on CBS
- Spread: Bills -4.5
- Total: 44
- Moneyline: Patriots +180, Bills –220
The Patriots and Bills already played twice this year as AFC East rivals, and those games could not have played out any differently. New England attempted just three pass attempts in its bizarre victory in a snow and wind storm back in early December, and Josh Allen threw all over the Pats’ defense in a revenge win later that month.
There won’t be another winter tornado in Western New York this weekend, but it will be colder than 10 degrees by kickoff. Buckle up for a frigid Round 3.
(7)Pittsburgh Steelers at (2)Kansas City Chiefs
- Sunday, 8:15 p.m. ET on NBC
- Spread: Chiefs -12.5
- Total: 46
- Moneyline: Steelers +450, Chiefs -630
Is there really anything to say about the Sunday night game? It’s great that Ben Roethlisberger snuck into the playoffs in what should be the final season of his legendary career, but he’s not going to go out on a high note.
I could see the Steelers covering with a late touchdown in the fourth quarter, but an outright win ain’t happening.
Props to consider
Joe Mixon OVER 76.5 rushing yards (-115)
This is as square as it gets when it comes to prop bets, but I’m rolling with it anyway. Mixon had 30 carries and 123 rushing yards against the Raiders when these two teams met back in November, and I don’t see why the Bengals would go away from that gameplan this time around.
Devin Singletary OVER 15.5 receiving yards (-110)
I expect the Bills to air it out on offense again after watching Allen torch the Patriots’ secondary a few weeks ago. Singletary caught five passes for 39 yards in that contest, and he should see similar volume in the passing game yet again.
Darrel Williams anytime touchdown (-110)
I like to get plus-money on my anytime touchdown bets, but this one is just too easy to pass up at decent odds. With Clyde Edwards-Helaire out for the game, Williams will get a majority of the backfield touches once again for Kansas City, and he should score at least once if the Chiefs have the offensive success I expect them to.
AFC Best Bets for Super Wild Card Weekend
Raiders +7/Chiefs -2.5 parlay (-108)
You might call me crazy here, but I trust the veteran Carr in his first playoff start over the 25-year-old Burrow. I also think Zac Taylor can be a little shaky at times on the sidelines, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he makes a few rookie mistakes in his first postseason game as a head coach.
As for the on-field handicap, the Raiders should be able to move the ball with a healthy Darren Waller against this mediocre defense, and Maxx Crosby will be able to feast against Cincinnati’s porous offensive line. With the spread dropping to +5, though, I’d like to capture a few more key numbers and buy the line up to +7.
To get it closer to even odds, let’s throw in the Chiefs bought down to -2.5.
Steelers-Chiefs UNDER 46
Look, could the Chiefs score 46 by themselves in the game and ruin this bet? Sure.
But I’d say it’s just as likely the Steelers get completely shut out in Big Ben’s last hurrah.
I’m willing to bet this total lands right in the middle of those two extremes, and Kansas City cruises to a 27-10 win. Let’s hope Roethlisberger doesn’t throw up on himself and toss two pick-sixes in the second half.
All betting odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 1/14.
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